The Slowdown Didn’t Free Up Your Next Superintendent

A project gets pushed. Another gets value-engineered into next year. Someone in the room says the one thing every owner wants to be true: at least the labor market should loosen up now.

It hasn’t. The firms that believed it are about to find out the hard way, usually on the day a good superintendent gives notice.

The market softened. The labor market didn’t.

The 2026 Workforce Survey from AGC and NCCER, with more than 1,800 respondents, shows both halves of the contradiction at once. In the past 12 months, 37% of firms reduced headcount by at least 5%, against 34% that grew by that much. More than half, 55%, had at least one non-data-center project canceled, postponed, or scaled back in the previous six months. Rising costs were the most-cited reason, at 34% of firms, followed by unavailable or expensive financing at 27%. Tariff-driven changes in demand came in at 10%, down from 16% a year earlier.

If that were the whole picture, you could hire your pick of the people those firms let go. Look at the rest of it.

Softer demand and a tight talent market aren’t in conflict. They describe two different groups of contractors.

Why doesn’t someone else’s layoff become your bench?

The slowdown isn’t being felt evenly. AGC’s analysis shows that while 34% of all firms grew headcount, the share jumps to 54% among firms with $50.1 million to $500 million in annual revenue, and 79% among firms above $500 million.

AGC’s economist put the split plainly: contractors building data centers, power projects, and advanced manufacturing plants “can’t find enough skilled workers, while firms in a majority of metro areas are stagnating or shedding employees.” Construction employment rose in only 173 of 360 metro areas from July 2025 to July 2026. It fell in 127 and held flat in 60.

Our read of those numbers: when a mid-size contractor lets a strong project manager go, that person doesn’t sit on the market waiting for your call. Larger firms in hotter segments are hiring, and they can move fast. The surplus you were counting on gets absorbed before it reaches you.

Which seats are hardest to fill?

Most of the shortage conversation is about craft labor, and craft labor is a real problem. But for many firms, the seat that stalls a project is the one that runs it.

Superintendents take time to make. Running sequencing, subcontractors, safety, and an owner’s expectations on the same morning isn’t something a person learns from a course. And the supply is on a slow clock:

• ABC estimates the industry needs 349,000 net new workers in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027, even on modest spending forecasts.
• NAHB’s analysis of 2024 Census data shows workers 55 and older make up 22% of the construction workforce.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects construction manager employment will grow 9% from 2025 to 2035, against about 3% for all occupations, with about 49,700 openings a year.

The cost shows up on the schedule. Worker shortages are the most-cited cause of project delays in the AGC survey, named by 42% of firms, ahead of electrical equipment lead times at 29%. Only 26% of firms report no significant project delays at all, and a quarter of contractors report 11 or more unfilled craft positions.

Five moves for a market that’s soft on work and tight on people

1. Start the search before the seat is empty

A search that begins when someone gives notice is already behind. Know who you’d call for your next two superintendent roles today, whether or not you have the work signed. A slow quarter is the best time to have those conversations, because you aren’t negotiating against a start date.

2. Assume the right person already has a job

The superintendent you want probably isn’t applying to anything. Good ones tend to be busy, and they aren’t reading job boards at lunch. That’s why these searches run on relationships and discreet conversations more than postings. AGC’s survey found 25% of firms use executive and non-craft search firms or professional employer organizations, and 49% added or increased online recruiting, which is built mostly to reach younger applicants.

3. Don’t count on pay alone to win

Pay matters, and you have to be in the range. But it’s a crowded way to compete. In the survey, 53% of firms raised salaried base pay by more than they did a year earlier, and another 31% raised it about the same amount. When more than four in five firms are moving, a raise keeps you in the conversation without setting you apart.

What’s left is what a good superintendent actually weighs: the backlog after this job, who they’d report to, how much of their life the schedule takes, and whether the company backs them when an owner pushes. Know your honest answers before the first call.

4. Grow your own, on purpose

Promoting a strong assistant superintendent is often the best hire you’ll make, but only if someone planned for it. Thirty-five percent of firms started or increased spending on training and professional development in the past year, and 48% increased their engagement with career programs at high schools, colleges, and technical schools. Pair that with a named path: what someone has to run, and for how long, before they get the next seat. We’ve written up how that path looks from the candidate’s side.

5. Protect the hire after you make it

A search only pays off if the person stays. AGC reports that 83% of firms lost at least some new field employees within 90 days. Salaried roles fail differently, but the lesson carries: the hiring problem doesn’t end at the offer.

The question to ask this quarter

If your best superintendent resigned on Friday, who would you call on Monday?

If there’s no name, the slowdown hasn’t helped you. It has only given you time to fix that. Tell us about the seat if you’d like a second set of eyes on it.